Mar 14, 2026
If you have been keeping an eye on the news lately, you have likely seen the headlines about the escalating conflict involving Iran. While the geopolitical situation may feel a world away, the reality is that the shockwaves are already reaching our local checkout lines.
When war disrupts a major global artery like the Strait of Hormuz, the first thing to jump is the price of crude oil. We have already seen prices climb past US$100 (C$135) a barrel. You may think that only matters when you fill up your car, but in our modern economy, energy is the invisible ingredient in every single loaf of bread and bag of apples you buy.
Why oil prices drive food costs
The connection between a barrel of oil and a carton of eggs is more direct than you may think. Canada is a massive country, stretching roughly 7,000 kilometres from coast to coast. Because most of us don’t live next to farms, almost everything we eat travels a long distance by truck or plane before it hits the shelf.
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"Energy is in everything. You need to transport food from one place to the other, you need to put fuel in those ships. We’re going to start seeing some increase in food prices as well, just because the transportation costs are going to go up," Andre Cire, a supply chain expert and professor at the University of Toronto told Global News (1).
Cire warns that if oil prices stay high, Canadians could see a 10% to 15% jump in grocery costs by the end of this month. He notes that while the immediate spike is concerning, a prolonged conflict could be "disastrous" for our wallets because, eventually, "everything is going to go up."
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The specific items at risk
It’s not just about the cost of gas for delivery trucks. The physical movement of goods is being choked. Since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, shipping routes have been thrown into chaos.
Take basmati rice as a primary example. India is the world’s leading exporter of this premium grain, but hundreds of thousands of tonnes are currently stuck. Satish Goel, president of the All India Rice Exporters’ Association, told Reuters (2) that "around 200,000 tons of basmati rice are stuck in transit, and an equal amount is stranded at Indian ports as the war has disrupted shipping routes across the Middle East."
If you usually buy Indian basmati, you should prepare for delays or price hikes as shippers are forced to take longer, more expensive routes. University of Guelph food economist Mike von Massow points out to Global News that these disruptions have ripple effects. "If it’s taking more days to ship things, then we might see both an increase in freight or at least a delay in freight coming through," he says.
How to protect your pocketbook
Knowing that prices are headed north is the first step in protecting your wallet from the financial impacts of the war. Here are a few ways to navigate the coming weeks:
Audit your pantry staples. Since rice and other imported grains are seeing immediate shipping disruptions, check your stock. You don’t need to hoard, but ensuring you have your basics covered now may save you from the 15% "conflict premium" later this month.
Shop local and seasonal. The further a food item has to travel, the more sensitive its price is to oil fluctuations. While Canada’s growing season is just starting, look for greenhouse-grown produce or root vegetables stored from the previous harvest to minimize the "food miles" you’re paying for.
Watch for substitutions. If your favourite imported grain becomes too expensive, look to domestic alternatives such as Canadian-grown oats or barley.
The uncertainty is the hardest part to manage. As von Massow notes, even if the fighting stopped tomorrow, the "significant uncertainty" regarding oil prices would remain. Staying informed and flexible with your meal planning is the best way to ensure this global crisis doesn’t break your household budget.
Article sources
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Leslie Kennedy served as an editor at Thomson Reuters and for Star Media Group, followed by a number of years as a writer and editor and content manager in marketing communications, before returning to her editorial roots. She is a graduate of Humber College’s post-graduate journalism program and has been a professional writer and editor ever since.
